Warnings of an Uptick in Sovereign Citizen activity?

Last week, the “sovereign citizens of the Great State of Arizona” attempted to submit their electoral college votes early. They sent notarized documents to the National Archives in an attempt to give 11 electoral college votes to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. While this attempt failed, could this be signs of an increase in sovereign citizen activity over the next four (or more) years?

According to data a colleague and I are using for research on the sovereign citizen movement, 149 events (out of 165) of violent or non-violent reported sovereign activity occurred between 2008 and 2014. This is significant because these were the years when President Obama was in the White House.

As a quick background, I co-authored a publication regarding sovereign citizens and a structured professional judgment tool in 2018. The current research built upon the roughly 60 incidents for the previous paper, and it expanded the dataset to 165 events that occurred between 2004 and 2014 and involved known or suspected sovereign citizens.

The sovereign citizen movement usually involves individuals that believe in smaller government. At their core, they believe the current federal government is operating illegally. Sovereign citizens are able to then declare their sovereignty and not be concerned with the rules and regulations of the United States. That’s how they justify not paying taxes or maintaining proper vehicle registration/licensure.

With the administration changing from Trump to President-Elect Joe Biden, are we going to see a similar uptick in sovereign citizen activity over the next few years? If the past gives us indication for the future, then I would suggest that we will se an uptick. Time will tell.

Brainstorming in the Private Sector: Using CIA Tradecraft in Real Life Scenarios

Most of us in the learning development world either fall directly under Human Resources (HR) or have a tenuous connection to this department. For me, I am directly under the HR Director. This allows me to better function as I have a support system of HR professionals behind me. It also provides me the opportunity to strategize with them on organizational concerns.

At the beginning of the 2019, we in HR were asked to outline new ways to 1) decrease turnover and 2) identify measurable goals for 2019. For the last six months or more, I have been looking for interesting ways to incorporate my former experience and education into the private sector. CIA’s Tradecraft primer has over a dozen analytical techniques that have potential to be utilized in private sector environments.

From the primer, brainstorming appeared to be the most logical first method on generating new ideas. It is tagged as “an unconstrained group process designed to generate new ideas and concepts” (pg. 27). The guide further outlines several suggestions:

1. Everyone is equal in this process.

2. Attempt to remove any biases or long held assumptions.

3. Prohibit nay-saying.

4. Schedule the exercise between 60 to 90 minutes.

5. Visibly record the ideas.

6. Include an “outsider” to the process.

I scheduled out 60 minutes (#4) on everyone’s calendar. I provided some relevant background on the brainstorming process to our CEO’s administrative assistant (#6), who also agreed to take notes (#5) and moderate (#3). The HR team has always functioned as a team (#1) and we did not already have any significant biases (#2) on these topics. Here is how it worked:

The first topic involved examining how the company can reduce turnover. Some of the major points were to provide future/new employees with more information in order for them to better understand the job before beginning; help managers become better leaders; conduct follow-up with new employees after several weeks on the job; and, standardize team processes

The next portion involved creating measurable strategic goals for the year. As HR, we do not often have the ability to measure output like operations does. However, we did come up with several suggestions, including a check-in for new employees; training for managers; and offering professional etiquette courses.

While this was our first time using the structured brainstorming approach, I have worked with smaller groups to do this for developing out learning objectives or novel training approaches. The possibilities are endless.

Have you or your company ever used brainstorming to come up with some ideas? How did it work for you?

Using CIA Tradecraft in the Real World

Imagine a daunting assignment: You need to create an employee development training course on problem-solving skills. Sounds easy, right?

It should be easy. After all, you have been solving problems your entire life. Maybe you have a Masters of Business Administration and excel at managing employees. Maybe you have made some great decisions and consider yourself successful. Or, maybe (like me) you have actually completed multiple analytical courses or the intelligence community advanced analyst program. Whatever your journey, there is no doubt you have developed a problem solving process.

How do you do it? Is it different from the way I solve problems?

I have always thought problem solving skills have an individual-specific component. We all don’t see the world the same way, so why would we all solve problems the same way? While I still believe this to be the case to a degree, I have had to concede that there exist universal analytical steps that can make problem solving easier.


 A Tradecraft Primer, page 38

The Sherman Kent School is the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) analyst training, development, and proving ground. One of their textbooks is available online: A Tradecraft Primer: Structure Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis.

While my daily problem solving is usually used to decide when is the best time to get groceries, CIA analysts have to provide recommendations for decision makers on national security topics. A mistake in my problem solving means I wait in heavy traffic; a mistake for them often means people’s lives are disrupted. These analysts solve problems by following a step-by-step analytical process as shown above (from A Tradecraft Primer, page 38). If you have some time (say, like a few days off for a holiday, perhaps), this is a quick and easy read.

When someone follows this guide, they would go from defining a problem, identifying assumptions, and brainstorming to red-teaming, devil’s advocate, and analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH). The analytical tool chosen depends partially on the problem. But, there are inherent challenges with these techniques in everyday life. Most of these techniques work best in group settings, require hours to complete, and need information that is often unavailable.

While this is all great, is this how we solve real world, private sector problems? I would say “yes”. I would argue that we all utilize elements of these steps in our daily lives. We may not always title the steps the same, but I believe we are generally involved in these processes to a certain degree. It is only when we face larger problems that we try more structured techniques. (Think about a young person deciding between colleges or a person evaluating which car to purchase.)

Back to my original question: How do you train people to solve problems better?

I’m still working on the details, but I have settled on developing curriculum with these deliverables:

  • (A person, after completing this training, will be able to…) Explain the identifying characteristics of a problem that will require greater concentration and effort to solve;
  • Demonstrate performing a “self-check” in which they 1) clearly articulate the problem and restate it if necessary, 2) brainstorm potential solutions, 3) identify their own assumptions regarding the problem, and 4) critique any implicit biases they may have regarding the problem, the people, or the potential solutions;
  • Describe the benefits and challenges to using a structured analytical technique like red-teaming or ACH; and,
  • Role-play using devil’s advocacy to find a solution for a simulated client problem.

This potential curriculum is still in the creation stage, but I am actually quite excited to give this a try in the near future. However, I am open to suggestions. Does anyone have other thoughts on how to teach people to problem solve better?

CTC Releases Article on Nigeria’s Boko Haram: Beyond the Headlines

On May 10, the Pentagon will release a report detailing their investigation into the death of four U.S. soldiers who were killed in Niger. The incident happened in October 4, 2017 outside of Tongo Tongo, Niger. The four US solders, Staff Sgt. Bryan Black, Staff Sgt. Dustin Wright, Staff Sgt. Jeremiah Johnson, and Sgt. La David Johnson, were killed along with four Nigerien soldiers and an interpreter. This Tongo Tongo ambush was perpetrated by the Islamic State (IS), an organization supported by Nigeria-based Boko Haram.
The West Point Combating Terrorism Center today released a report on Boko Haram, which focused on the details about this organization. Check it out: https://ctc.usma.edu/boko-haram-beyond-headlines-analyses-africas-enduring-insurgency

Tweet this: Extremists continue utilizing social media

The Parkland, Florida, high school shooting yesterday once again underscores the continual need to prevent these incidents.  Prevention strategies tend to follow along the same path of hardening these soft targets: Metal detectors or increased/more visible security measures.  The main counterbalance to these strategies is, of course, money.

While news regarding this shooting continues to develop, sources are reporting the shooter had a significant online presence.  It appears there were escalating comments and posts.  Was it possible to have previously predicted this shooter’s violent activities?

The Tactical Decision Making Research Group believes it may indeed be possible.  Their research on Identifying Vulnerable Persons (IVP) provides a framework for this approach.  Originally developed for non-intelligence and non-law enforcement professionals to utilize, IVP lays out a outline for evaluating an individual’s social media footprint.

Scot A. Terban recently posted about violent extremist usage of social media.  His article focuses mostly on Daesh (ISIS) and other violent Islamic extremist individuals. The IVP also tends to focus on violent Islamic extremists. However, I would argue there is a need for this same scrutiny to be applied to sovereign citizens, white supremacists, and other domestic terror-based collectives.

Other thoughts?