Category: Intelligence
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U.S. Capitol Insurrection
As we approach the third year anniversary of the U.S. Capitol insurrection, I thought it would be interesting to show a couple other background pieces: This is video that appears to be from Donald Trump Jr. around the time of the insurrection. This is a presentation dated 5 January 2021 outlining the options for January…
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Critical Thinking
Found this graphic online. It is always great to review over refreshers like this to keep yourself sharp.
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Probability
What do you mean when you say something is “probably” going to happen? Does that mean 50%? Greater? Less? In many fields, especially in intelligence, people use words to describe the likelihood of something happening. Sherman Kent, one of the CIA’s premier intelligence professional, wrote about this subject. Since then, others have studied it and…
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Violence risk assessment of Sovereign Citizens: An exploratory examination of the HCR-20 Version 3 and the TRAP-18
Lee Vargen and I spent over a year going back and forth on the research and this article. Abstract: Sovereign Citizens comprise an understudied right-wing extremist movement in the United States who have grown in notoriety in recent years due to several high-profile instances of violence. Despite this, little empirical research has been conducted on…
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The January 6th insurrection at the U.S. capitol: What the TRAP-18 can tell us about the participants.
I started working on this project in the Summer of 2021. Citation Challacombe, D. J., & Patrick, C. L. (2022). The January 6th insurrection at the U.S. capitol: What the TRAP-18 can tell us about the participants. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000194 Abstract On January 6, 2021, hundreds of individuals converged on and…